Well, MAGA / POTUS just lost, quite sadly and embarrassingly (at least on the surface), a notable Tariff Battle against China. Last night, POTUS capitulated and, like a Frenchman, quickly raised the white flag – and removed the 125%-145% Tariffs1The exemptions are on a lot of Big Tech/electronic goods (think Apple products; Trump unwisely gave Apple exemptions in his first term, too). Of course, the small mom-and-pop vendors selling “non-essential” toys, supplies, tools, sporting goods, clothing, and such based in the USA and China will likely get temporarily crushed – just like what happened to many small “non-essential” businesses and restaurants during Cov-id. that he had boldly imposed just two days earlier.
What’s Our Poker Hand or Leverage in a Tariff Deal?
Our poker hand is weak in the sense that the USA has become dependent on all sorts of products from China and elsewhere. Our leverage is China depends, to a meaningful extent, on selling a lot of high-value goods to the USA market, and a lot of small businesses and entrepreneurs in China depend on selling low-priced goods into the USA via Amazon, Walmart, Temu, Ebay, and others for their living. If the people firmly believe they will lose their businesses, then there could be an uproar against some of the trade policies being implemented by the Communists in power in China (the CCP).
Largest Trading Partners | China and USA | 2000 to 2024
The image below by Visual Capitalist’s Voronoi and shared by ZeroHedge shows the change of both trade volume and largest trading partners of the USA and China from 2000 to 2024.
From the Voronoi article:
- In 2000, U.S. trade totaled $2.0 trillion—more than four times China’s $474 billion.
- From 2000 to 2024, U.S. trade grew by 167% (4.2% CAGR), while China’s trade surged by 1,200% (11.3% CAGR), surpassing the U.S. in 2012.
- By 2024, total trade reached $5.3 trillion for the U.S. and $6.2 trillion for China.
So, let’s face it, we have a weak hand. But, what’s worse is President Trump lost some credibility with his failed tariff “negotiations” with China. The optics are weakness.
For instance, just read some of the comments to the ZeroHedge article (linked to earlier). I don’t recall seeing so many negative opinions about a POTUS decision by his own supporters. Can you even find a positive comment in the 2,000+ comments on that article as of this blog post?
ZeroHedge Article Quotes
Meet your new boss:
What a joke. We were played again. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
On small businesses:
Saw the small business owners on tv bitching about how all their inventory comes from China and tariffs will shut them down. So much for the little peeps.
Negotiating with himself:
At this point, he’s negotiating with himself. Never a good place to be. Take the L and move on.
What’s the point?
” Now, updated guidance from CBP reveals that some of the highest-value trade—particularly a wide range of electronics—is excluded from the reciprocal tariffs.”
Soo, whats the point now…
If this is what “winning” looks like, then I’m tired of winning.
How it started (three days ago)
Anyway, just three days ago (Wednesday, 09 April), President Trump announced that he raised Tariffs to 125% on China.
I applauded this approach on social media. After all, the USA has lacked strong, America First leadership since probably the early 1960’s when John F. Kennedy was president.2He got assasinated (perhaps indirectly by the CIA?) in part because he wanted to bypass the private central bank (the FED) and return to sound money explicitly required by the Constitution: JFK was planning to issue silver certificates (backed by silver).
How it is going
Well, Trump didn’t even keep a poker face for three days, because just last night (Friday, 11 April), he removed Tariffs on electronic devices from China.
In other words, Big Tech is apparently running part of the MAGA show.
What is the Deal, here?
Is this a 3-D chess strategy? Or, is POTUS just negotiating “the Art of the Deal” with himself?
I mean, President Xi—behaving like a poker champ, like a boss—didn’t even blink, let alone begin to negotiate. What am I missing?
If I were King
If I were King of the USA and made a decision for my troops and generals to go to battle (the Tariff battle and subsequent decision, in this analogy), then we’d channel a Fighting Irish and Spartans mentality and proceed accordingly.
I’d be leading the charge (like Alexander the Great), willing to go down with the ship. No surrender. No white flag!
…But I will go down with this ship
Dido, “White Flag”
And I won’t put my hands up and surrender
There will be no white flag above my door…
Song: White Flag by Dido
Footnotes
- 1The exemptions are on a lot of Big Tech/electronic goods (think Apple products; Trump unwisely gave Apple exemptions in his first term, too). Of course, the small mom-and-pop vendors selling “non-essential” toys, supplies, tools, sporting goods, clothing, and such based in the USA and China will likely get temporarily crushed – just like what happened to many small “non-essential” businesses and restaurants during Cov-id.
- 2He got assasinated (perhaps indirectly by the CIA?) in part because he wanted to bypass the private central bank (the FED) and return to sound money explicitly required by the Constitution: JFK was planning to issue silver certificates (backed by silver).
